Amgen (AMGN) – Biotech Giant With a Deep Pipeline and Growing Portfolio
Amgen is one of the world’s largest independent biotech companies, and we think the market is underappreciating the breadth of its growth portfolio at current levels. With at least six distinct growth vectors reaching commercial inflection simultaneously, spanning obesity, cardiovascular, autoimmune, respiratory, oncology, and biosimilars, the compounding effect on earnings over the next three years should be material. We rate AMGN a Buy at US$348.43 with a 12-month price target of US$415, representing 19.1% upside, plus a 3.2% dividend yield.
Research published 25 March 2026. Price target and upside based on prices at time of publication.
About Amgen
Amgen is one of the world’s largest independent biotechnology companies, headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California. Founded in 1980, the company discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers innovative human therapeutics across oncology, cardiovascular, inflammation, bone health, nephrology, and neuroscience. Amgen’s portfolio includes established blockbusters alongside a deep pipeline of growth assets, and the company has built one of the industry’s most successful biosimilar franchises with US$13 billion in cumulative revenue. With a market capitalisation of approximately US$187.6 billion and an enterprise value of US$223.9 billion, Amgen is a cornerstone holding in many large-cap biotech portfolios.
Multiple Franchises Reaching Inflection Simultaneously
A recent management meeting reinforced the multi-franchise growth story, and what stood out was the sheer number of programs gaining momentum at the same time. This is not a one-product story. Amgen has at least six distinct growth vectors that are either launching commercially, approaching key data readouts, or expanding into new indications.
The company’s ability to execute across this many programs reflects its scale and infrastructure. With a global commercial footprint and deep manufacturing capabilities, Amgen can launch multiple products in parallel without cannibalising investment in any single franchise. That operational scale is difficult for smaller biotechs to replicate and is one reason we think Amgen deserves a premium to its current multiple.
MariTide in Obesity
MariTide is Amgen’s entry into the obesity market, and it offers genuine differentiation. The Phase 3 MARITIME program is now fully enrolled, with MariTide targeting monthly Q3M dosing through its long-acting mechanism. The dosing schedule is a meaningful differentiator versus the current generation of GLP-1 agonists that require weekly injections. Manageable GI side effects with a three-step dose escalation protocol should further support real-world tolerability.
Beyond weight management, Amgen is exploring MariTide in sleep apnea, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and heart failure. These label expansion opportunities could position MariTide as a broader metabolic therapy rather than purely a weight loss drug. The obesity market is expected to reach US$150 billion or more by 2030, and even a modest share would represent a significant revenue contribution.
Repatha and the Cardiovascular Pipeline
Repatha continues to build momentum with the Phase 3 VESALIUS-CV trial evaluating primary prevention of cardiovascular events across 12,000 patients. This would significantly expand the addressable population beyond the current secondary prevention label. Recent AHA/ACC guideline changes supporting earlier and more aggressive LDL-C lowering are creating a favourable prescribing environment.
Alongside Repatha, olpasiran targets lipoprotein(a), an independent cardiovascular risk factor affecting roughly 20% of the global population. Olpasiran delivers quarterly dosing with 95 to 100% Lp(a) knockdown, and the Phase 3 OCEAN study is underway. There are currently no approved therapies specifically targeting Lp(a), so success here would open an entirely new treatment category.
Tezspire, Uplizna, and Oncology Growth
The commercial launches across Amgen’s other key franchises are tracking well. The highlights include:
- Tezspire has no eosinophil restrictions in severe asthma, giving it a broader addressable population than competitors. Recent approval in chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) and Phase 3 trials in COPD and eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) add further growth potential
- Uplizna has reached 500 prescribing physicians in IgG4-related disease with an 87% flare reduction at 52 weeks. The generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) launch is seeing a 50-50 split between biologics-naive and experienced patients, indicating broad physician confidence
- Blincyto and Imdelltra are building the oncology franchise, with Imdelltra approved in second-line small cell lung cancer and moving to earlier treatment lines. The bispecific antibody xaluritamig adds further optionality
- All three commercial launches are in early stages with significant room for growth over the next several years
Uplizna’s performance in IgG4-RD has been particularly notable. Reaching 500 prescribing physicians in a relatively rare autoimmune condition demonstrates strong specialty sales execution. As the label expands to additional autoimmune indications, the revenue trajectory should steepen meaningfully.
Biosimilars Continue to Compound
Amgen’s biosimilar business has generated US$13 billion in cumulative revenue since first launch and continues to grow. The company is now developing its third wave of biosimilar candidates, and successful launches would add a material and relatively lower-risk revenue stream. The franchise is strategically important because it generates reliable cash flow that helps fund the higher-risk innovative pipeline.
The third wave targets some of the highest-revenue biologics globally, including Keytruda, Opdivo, and Ocrevus. Competition in biosimilars is intensifying and pricing dynamics can shift, but Amgen’s manufacturing expertise and established commercial infrastructure give it a meaningful edge over smaller developers. The regulatory pathways for biosimilars are well established, and Amgen’s track record of navigating the approval process efficiently reduces execution risk relative to newer entrants.
Financial Summary
Amgen’s financial profile shows a business growing revenue while maintaining strong margins and returning capital through dividends. The key metrics over the forecast period:
- Revenue: 12/25 US$36,751m, 12/26E US$38,240m, 12/27E US$42,407m, 12/28E US$44,114m
- EPS: 12/25 US$21.84, 12/26E US$22.69, 12/27E US$24.80, 12/28E US$25.95
- PE ratio: 12/25 13.6x, 12/26E 15.4x, 12/27E 14.1x, 12/28E 13.4x
- Dividend yield: 12/25 3.2%, 12/26E 2.9%, 12/27E 3.0%
Revenue is expected to grow from US$36.8 billion in 2025 to US$44.1 billion by 2028, a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6%. EPS growth tracks slightly ahead of revenue as operating efficiencies improve across the newer franchises. The PE multiple of 15.4x on 2026 estimates looks reasonable for a large-cap biotech with this breadth of growth drivers, particularly as the 2028 PE compresses to 13.4x.
The dividend yield of 3.2% at current levels provides an income component that is unusual for a growth-oriented biotech. Amgen has a long track record of dividend growth, and we expect that to continue as free cash flow expands.
Valuation and Price Target
The US$415 price target is based on a discounted cash flow analysis using a 2.5% terminal growth rate and 8% weighted average cost of capital. At US$348.43, the stock trades at a discount to fair value that we believe is unwarranted given the breadth of the growth portfolio. Leading institutional research from Goldman Sachs has highlighted the multi-franchise growth story as a key differentiator versus other large-cap biotechs, and we share that view.
The 19.1% upside to the price target, combined with the dividend yield, implies total return potential of approximately 22% over the next 12 months. For a company of Amgen’s scale and quality, that is compelling. The stock has historically traded at a premium to the biotech sector, and the current discount creates an attractive entry point.
Risks to Watch
Biosimilar competition against Amgen’s legacy products remains an ongoing headwind. As patents expire on older franchises like Enbrel and Prolia, the newer growth products need to more than offset the revenue erosion. Amgen has generally managed this transition well over the past decade, but execution risk remains with each product cycle. The pace of biosimilar uptake can be difficult to predict, and any acceleration in legacy product erosion would pressure near-term earnings.
MariTide is high stakes. The obesity market is attracting enormous investment from multiple large pharma companies, and competitive dynamics could compress pricing and market share assumptions. If the MARITIME Phase 3 data disappoints on efficacy or tolerability, the stock could face meaningful downside given the expectations embedded in the narrative. The obesity market is evolving rapidly, with next-generation GLP-1 agents from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk raising the efficacy bar.
There is also a material IRS tax litigation exposure of US$8.7 billion or more related to transfer pricing arrangements. While we do not assign a high probability to a worst-case outcome, the potential financial impact is significant enough that investors should be aware of it. Any adverse ruling could create a short-term overhang on the stock even if the ultimate resolution is more favourable than the headline number suggests.
Finally, Amgen’s balance sheet carries meaningful debt following the Horizon Therapeutics acquisition, and elevated interest rates increase the cost of servicing that debt. While cash flow generation is strong, the combination of debt levels and potential clinical setbacks could create periods of volatility that investors need to be prepared for.
Our View
Amgen is in the strongest position it has been in for several years. The pipeline is deep and diversified, multiple franchises are reaching commercial inflection simultaneously, and the biosimilar business provides reliable cash flow. The current valuation does not fully reflect the optionality from MariTide, olpasiran, and the third wave of biosimilars. We think AMGN offers a rare combination of large-cap quality, income, and growth at a reasonable price.
If you would like to discuss Amgen or how US equities might fit within your portfolio, request a callback or call us on 1300 889 603.
