Nufarm (ASX: NUF) – Nufarm on track for strong EBITDA growth

Henry Fung

Henry is a co-founder of MF & Co. Asset Management with over 20 years in financial services as a trader and investor, including the past 10 years advising clients and building quantitative trading systems. Henry also maintains a high conviction list of 5 stocks that you can get for free and has a free 5-day course on how professionals use quantitative strategies to find an edge. The concepts in the course are applied in the Quantitative Leveraged ETF L/S Strategy.
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September 23, 2026

Nufarm (ASX: NUF)View stock profile →

Nufarm’s latest business update shows the crop protection and seed technologies company is delivering on its strategic refresh commitments, with underlying EBITDA forecast to grow approximately 25 percent compared to the prior corresponding period. The agricultural chemical giant is also significantly de-leveraging, with net debt to EBITDA expected to reduce from 2.7 times at 30 September 2025 to approximately 2.0 times at 30 September 2026. This combination of earnings acceleration and balance sheet strengthening addresses investor concerns about Nufarm’s financial position and signals the company’s operational initiatives are gaining real traction.

The 25 percent EBITDA growth to between $370 million and $380 million reflects both organic momentum and the tangible benefits of the cost reduction program now underway. The leverage improvement is particularly noteworthy as it demonstrates disciplined working capital management and positive free cash generation during a period when significant headwinds are affecting parts of the business. Investors have been waiting to see concrete evidence that management’s strategic reset is producing results, and these metrics suggest the operational plan is materializing as communicated to the market.

Segment performance shows mixed results within the overall positive narrative. The Seed Technologies division is expected to deliver strong year-on-year EBITDA growth, driven by the Hybrid Seeds business and improved Omega-3 pricing. This segment represents the standout performer for the group. Crop Protection, conversely, is forecast to deliver EBITDA broadly in line with the prior corresponding period, as foreign exchange headwinds, manufacturing disruptions, and softer market conditions in North America weigh on results. This contrast highlights the uneven recovery across Nufarm’s portfolio and underscores the critical importance of sustaining momentum in Seed Technologies going forward.

The cost reduction program remains on track, with Nufarm targeting $50 million of run-rate cost savings by the end of FY27. The company is executing facility closures, including the Alsip manufacturing facility in the USA and the previously announced Kwinana site closure, alongside accelerated SKU rationalization efforts. These activities are not costless; material items are expected to run between $90 million and $110 million post-tax, though management has flagged these are primarily non-cash charges related to the restructuring and site rationalisation activities.

Investors should monitor Nufarm’s full year results, due on 19 November 2026, to assess whether the preliminary expectations outlined in this update hold under audit scrutiny. The material items guidance will also warrant close attention, as tracking these costs against targets will signal execution discipline and management credibility going forward. This announcement is price sensitive and has been flagged as material by the ASX.

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View the full ASX announcement (PDF)

About Nufarm Limited (ASX: NUF)

Nufarm Limited is a global crop-protection and seed technology company that develops, manufactures, and sells herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and seed technologies. The company operates through two main segments: Crop Protection and Seed Technologies, serving agricultural markets across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, and the Asia Pacific regions. Founded in 1916 and headquartered in Laverton North, Australia, Nufarm operates in the off-patent segment of the crop-protection market.

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This is general advice only. MF & Co Asset Management has not considered your personal financial needs, objectives or current situation. This information is not an offer, solicitation, or a recommendation for any financial product unless expressly stated. You should seek professional investment advice before making any investment decision.

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