Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) – Origin Energy Analyst Presentation Briefing

Henry Fung

Henry is a co-founder of MF & Co. Asset Management with over 20 years in financial services as a trader and investor, including the past 10 years advising clients and building quantitative trading systems. Henry also maintains a high conviction list of 5 stocks that you can get for free and has a free 5-day course on how professionals use quantitative strategies to find an edge. The concepts in the course are applied in the Quantitative Leveraged ETF L/S Strategy.
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August 13, 2026

Origin Energy (ASX: ORG)View stock profile →

Origin Energy disclosed a significant data security incident alongside FY26 results on 13 August 2026, confirming that unauthorised access to customer information occurred in July. The company has prioritised customer support and engaged cyber specialists to secure systems, with investigations ongoing and authorities involved. This disclosure adds a material operational risk to an otherwise solid financial result where statutory profit rose 6% to $1,574 million while adjusted free cash flow surged 72% to $2,074 million.

The underlying profit decline to $1,159 million from $1,490 million masks a portfolio in transition. Energy Markets delivered $1,701 million EBITDA toward the upper end of guidance, and Integrated Gas contributed $1,620 million in line with expectations, reflecting stable dividends from APLNG at $911 million fully franked. However, the combined Octopus and Kraken segment posted an $8 million EBITDA loss, though UK Retail alone generated $134 million, subsidising the expansion of non-UK retail and technology platforms. Octopus Energy expanded customer accounts by 2.2 million, including 1.4 million outside the UK, while Kraken Technologies achieved 19% revenue growth with 95 million contracted accounts by June 2026.

Capital-light restructuring progressed significantly with the Octopus and Kraken legal separation completed and a $1 billion equity raise for Kraken closed in July. The core domestic business achieved 243,000 net customer account growth and delivered the full $100 million to $150 million cost reduction target. Battery capacity reached 1.3 gigawatt and 4.1 gigawatt-hours operational of a planned 1.8 gigawatt and 6.4 gigawatt-hour portfolio, progressing on time and budget. APLNG’s 2P reserves increased 332 petajoules before production, underpinning near-term cash flow stability.

The board declared a fully franked 30 cent final dividend, maintaining 60 cents fully franked for the full year. This was supported by the company’s strong balance sheet, with net debt to adjusted underlying EBITDA holding steady at 1.6 times from 1.7 times at June 2025. Management flagged lower average energy prices passed through in FY27 reflecting wider market trends, while investment in customer support continued following the data breach, with extended support hours and specialist services deployed.

Investors should monitor the trajectory of customer remediation from the July security incident and any regulatory findings that could impact Origin’s operating licence or reputation in the competitive retail market. The success of the Octopus and Kraken separation will be critical to demonstrate the value of the non-core technology platform and retail operations to the equity markets. Battery rollout completion, APLNG dividend sustainability amid energy market volatility, and domestic retail margin recovery as price pressures ease will all shape earnings and cash flow through FY27. This announcement is price sensitive and has been flagged as material by the ASX.

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View the full ASX announcement (PDF)

About Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG)

Origin Energy is a major integrated energy company operating across Australia’s electricity and natural gas markets. It generates electricity from multiple sources including coal, natural gas, hydro, and solar, while retailing electricity and natural gas to approximately 4.2 million customers. The company also engages in natural gas exploration and production and offers complementary services including solar systems, EV charging, and broadband.

If you would like to discuss this announcement or how it might affect your portfolio, request a callback or call us on 1300 889 603.

This is general advice only. MF & Co Asset Management has not considered your personal financial needs, objectives or current situation. This information is not an offer, solicitation, or a recommendation for any financial product unless expressly stated. You should seek professional investment advice before making any investment decision.

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MF & Co. Asset Management is a boutique investment firm offering Equity Capital Markets and derivative general advice & trade execution services.

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