BlueScope Steel (ASX: BSL) – BlueScope upgrades 1H FY2027 earnings guidance

BlueScope Steel has upgraded its 1H FY2027 underlying EBIT guidance to approximately $1.1 billion, up substantially from the previous range of $860 million to $960 million. The upgrade reflects stronger than anticipated earnings across multiple operations, with management attributing the increase primarily to enhanced performance from North Star on the back of strengthened US steel spreads, alongside improved results from Buildings and Coated Products North America and Australian Steel Products.

The North America region forms the bulk of the upside, now expected to deliver a result around two-thirds higher than the prior corresponding half. North Star alone is projected to deliver earnings approaching three-quarters higher than 2H FY2026, driven largely by benchmark steel spreads reaching approximately $810 per tonne against the previously assumed $750 per tonne. Beyond the favourable pricing environment, the business has benefited from solid operational execution, including volume contributions from its debottlenecking project that delivered higher than anticipated despatch volumes. Buildings and Coated Products North America is forecast to post earnings around 50 percent higher than 2H FY2026, with Steelscape in particular benefiting from stronger despatch volumes and improved realised prices. The Buildings North America operation has also contributed with enhanced operating margins.

Australian Steel Products has demonstrated particularly strong momentum, now expected to deliver earnings approaching double those of 2H FY2026. Despite slightly softer benchmark spread assumptions compared with prior guidance, the region has been buoyed by resilient domestic demand, stronger despatch volumes, and better realised spread outcomes. This resilience in the domestic steel market suggests sustained activity in the construction and industrial sectors that rely on BlueScope’s product range.

For investors, the upgrade signals that BlueScope’s earnings capacity has proved significantly stronger than management anticipated only weeks ago. The rerating of North American conditions, in particular, shows the attraction of the group’s US operations in the current cycle. Management noted that the strength of the US steel industry and key North American end-use markets remain favourable, positioning BlueScope’s high-quality North American asset base to benefit from ongoing industrial investment and economic growth. The company has also emphasised its high-quality asset portfolio and continued ability to deliver strong shareholder returns, though specific capital allocation guidance is not provided in this announcement.

The immediate focus for investors should be the company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting scheduled for 16 November at 10:00 am, where BlueScope will provide further detail on operating conditions and expectations for the second half. Given the magnitude of the upgrade and the fluid nature of steel market conditions, monitoring developments in US steel spreads, North American end-use market activity, and domestic Australian demand will be essential to gauge whether current earnings momentum can be sustained. This announcement has been flagged as price sensitive and material to the ASX.

View the full ASX announcement (PDF)

About BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL)

BlueScope Steel Limited is an Australian flat product steel manufacturer producing painted and coated steel products for construction, buildings, automotive applications, and other industries. The company operates across North America, Australia, New Zealand, the Pacific Islands, and Asia, serving thousands of customers globally. With approximately 14,000 employees and operations spanning multiple countries, BlueScope is a leading manufacturer of steel materials and systems.

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