Why The RBA Is Getting Harder To Read Ahead Of Decision Days
The RBA has dropped forward guidance and its hedging language has risen since 2023, coinciding with bigger market surprises on decision days.
Macro & Market Research
The Last Mile of Inflation Is a Goods Problem in Australia, Not a Services One
Australia’s trimmed mean inflation hit 3.6% in August, the hottest of six major economies, and it’s goods prices driving it, not services.
The $9k Hit to Property Investors. Why Most Won’t Reallocate.
The FY2027 housing tax overhaul costs a typical new property investor ~$9k a year in cash flow and 1.9ppt in 10-yr returns. Why most won’t sell.
Corporate Profits Are at Record Highs. AI Could Make the Gap Even Wider.
US corporate profits have roughly doubled as a share of GDP since the 1980s while the top 1 per cent of firms now control 80 per cent of sales. New economics research spanning a century of data finds concentration accounts for a third of the margin increase, and history suggests AI will widen the gap further.
Australia’s Biggest CGT Change in 25 Years. What It Means for Investors.
The FY2027 Commonwealth Budget delivered the biggest change to capital gains tax since 1999. Institutional sell-side economics research assessed the...
The Australian Consumer Was Already Last in the G10 on Spending. The RBA Hiked Anyway.
The G10 consumer dashboard puts Australian household spending growth dead last in the developed-market cohort. Tuesday’s RBA hike to 4.35 percent continues the squeeze. What that means for a domestic portfolio.
The Q1 CPI Was Mixed. The RBA Still Has to Hike on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank Board meets on Monday and Tuesday next week with a rate decision at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday. This is the most anticipated...
Why the Iran Oil Shock Points to More RBA Hikes, Not Fewer
The default narrative around the Iran conflict and the oil spike that has followed it is that it is bad news, full stop. Higher energy costs feed...
Supply Shock to Knock the RBA Off the “Narrow Path” and Into the Rough
We held a positive outlook on the Australian macro earlier this year, but that view has been substantially undermined by the war in Iran. Surging...
Gold Investment Primer and Why Gold Matters for Investors
The Gold Market and Why It Matters for Investors Gold is one of the most misunderstood assets in modern finance. It generates no cash flow, pays no...